Artificial Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 120 markets

W
What will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?

89%

Oil / Gas / Gasoline 5+ times

$52k Vol.
$35k Liq.
2
Ends in about 23 hours
T
TIME Person of the Year 2026

TIME Person of the Year 2026

30%

Mark Carney

$64k Vol.
$639k Liq.
12
Ends in 3 months
W
What will Trump say during his Ribbon Cutting Ceremony?

51%

Ballroom

$3k Vol.
$7k Liq.
3
Ended
W
What will Netanyahu say during the United Nations General Assembly?

87%

Antisemitic / Antisemitism

$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 3 days
W
What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (September 23)

96%

Money

$2k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 2 days
W
What will BlackBerry say during their next earnings call?

99%

Quarter 15+ times

$1k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 days
W
What will Cracker Barrel say during their next earnings call?

98%

Quarter 15+ times

$2k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 2 days
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

14%

Yes

$266k Vol.
$24k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
C
Comprehensive federal AI framework becomes US law before 2028?

31%

Yes

$318 Vol.
$435 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$495 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

53%

Anthropic

$6k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?

Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?

7%

Yes

$444 Vol.
$314 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

53%

Anthropic

$26k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
T
Trump renames AI by September 30?

Trump renames AI by September 30?

8%

Yes

$11k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 days
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

50%

Other

$3k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

17%

December 31, 2026

$2k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
T
Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?

50%

Other

$42k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

67%

Anthropic

$87k Vol.
$47k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

11%

Yes

$3.0m Vol.
$25k Liq.
97
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

26%

OpenAI

$9k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month