AI Safety Predictions & Odds· 127 markets

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Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill?

Politics

Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill?

No

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U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025?

No

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Trump-Xi Summit: What will Trump announce by May 22?

Taiwan Arms Sales Halt

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What will Mamdani say during next live announcement?

Afford / Affordable / Affordability

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What will Melania say during remarks in North Carolina?

North Carolina / Ashe County

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What will Mamdani say during next live announcement?

Afford / Affordable / Affordability

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What will Mamdani say during next live announcement?

Safe / Safer / Safety

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What will Mamdani say during next live announcement?

Safe / Safer / Safety

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What will Mamdani say during next live announcement?

Afford / Affordable / Affordability

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What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (April 10)

AI 15+ times

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What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (April 3)

AI 15+ times

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What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (March 27)

AI / Artificial Intelligence 20+ times

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What will Roblox say during their next earnings call?

Safety

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What will Cuomo say during his victory/concession speech?

Thank you 5+ times

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OpenAI’s Astra Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

40%+

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Scarlett Johansson sues OpenAI in May?

No

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OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

No

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OpenAI apologizes to Scarlett Johansson by Friday?

Yes

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Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

Yes

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# of ChatGPT Outage Days in August 2026?

<3

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