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Tariff Predictions & Odds· 645 markets

AllPoliticsIranTrumpCanadaChinaXi JinpingInternational AffairsMAGASCOTUSSupreme Court GeopoliticsEconomyTrump PresidencyRecurringTariffsTairffsTrade WarWorldXiTrade DealTrump XiLawsuitGeneral TariffSueIEEPAU.S. X IranTrump Xi Summit
U
US x China tariff agreement by August 31?

Politics·China

US x China tariff agreement by August 31?

No

$4k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
U
US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?

Economy·Trump

US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?

5%+

$21k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
U
US x China tariff agreement by July 31?

Politics·Xi

US x China tariff agreement by July 31?

No

$94k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
U
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?

Politics·Xi

US x China tariff agreement by June 30?

No

$72k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
U
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?

Politics·xi jinping

US x China tariff agreement by May 31?

No

$146k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
T
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?

Economy·Trade War

Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?

No

$80k Vol.
$0 Liq.
12
Ended
W
Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31?

Politics·Trade War

Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31?

Yes

$74k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended
U
U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?

Politics·China

U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?

5–15%

$1.2m Vol.
$0 Liq.
27
Ended
T
Trump sued over tariff powers again by March 31?

Politics·lawsuit

Trump sued over tariff powers again by March 31?

Yes

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
6
Ended
N
New 10% US blanket tariff goes into effect by February 28?

World·Trump

New 10% US blanket tariff goes into effect by February 28?

Yes

$200k Vol.
$0 Liq.
26
Ended
1
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

Economy·China

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

No

$87k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended
W
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?

Politics·Tariffs

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?

No

$23k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
U
US tariff revenue up in Q4 2025?

Politics·Tariffs

US tariff revenue up in Q4 2025?

Yes

$11k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by December 31?

Politics·Tariffs

Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by December 31?

Israel

$24k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?

Politics·Tariffs

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?

No

$30k Vol.
$0 Liq.
4
Ended
W
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?

Politics·Tariffs

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?

No

$168k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by November 30?

World·Tariffs

Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by November 30?

China

$959k Vol.
$0 Liq.
286
Ended
T
Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31?

Politics·Tariffs

Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31?

No

$283k Vol.
$0 Liq.
60
Ended
1
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?

Politics·Tariffs

100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?

No

$1.5m Vol.
$0 Liq.
47
Ended
W
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?

Politics·Tariffs

Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?

No

$1.9m Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

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