AI Releases Predictions & Odds· 106 markets

N
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?

Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?

85%

October 31

$19k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

16%

Yes

$275k Vol.
$30k Liq.
30
Ends in 3 months
U
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

11%

Yes

$31k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?

2%

Yes

$10k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 6 days
W
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

31%

December 31, 2026

$441k Vol.
$9k Liq.
46
Ends in 3 months
G
GPT-7 released by...?

GPT-7 released by...?

84%

December 31, 2027

$14k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

11%

Yes

$167k Vol.
$42k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?

3%

Yes

$9k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

26%

Clip-on device for clothing

$437k Vol.
$28k Liq.
13
Ends in 3 months
H
Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31?

11%

Yes

$7k Vol.
$8k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

21%

June 30, 2027

$3.0m Vol.
$53k Liq.
97
Ends in 3 months
A
AI artwork hits $10M at major auction in 2026?

6%

Yes

$633 Vol.
$729 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

32%

Google

$79k Vol.
$4k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

14%

Yes

$81k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
N
New MAI thinking model released by...?

New MAI thinking model released by...?

56%

December 31

$489 Vol.
$332 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

57%

0

$155k Vol.
$65k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
SSI public model released by…?

SSI public model released by…?

86%

December 31

$117k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

14%

October 15

$5k Vol.
$985 Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

9%

Yes

$38k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
M
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

20%

December 31

$7.2m Vol.
$97k Liq.
409
Ends in 3 months