AI Development Predictions & Odds· 226 markets

W
Which company has the best AI model end of September?

99%

Anthropic

$3.7m Vol.
$1.5m Liq.
Ends in 10 days
B
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

92%

Alibaba

$546k Vol.
$119k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

44%

0

$134k Vol.
$92k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

89%

Anthropic

$361k Vol.
$678k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

72%

Anthropic

$1.3m Vol.
$1.0m Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

11%

Yes

$143k Vol.
$38k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

86%

December 31, 2027

$296k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?

64%

OpenAI

$162k Vol.
$39k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
W
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

55%

Hodge Conjecture

$172k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
A
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

9%

Yes

$33k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?

Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?

85%

OpenAI

$44k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

14%

Yes

$27k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of November?

50%

Other

$9k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?

Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?

84%

Anthropic

$34k Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
T
Trump renames AI by September 30?

Trump renames AI by September 30?

5%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$10k Liq.
1
Ends in 10 days
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

61%

Anthropic

$83k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

65%

Z.ai

$131k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
T
Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

61%

Moonshot

$60k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
S
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?

Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?

51%

OpenAI

$5k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
#
#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)

#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)

80%

Meta

$88k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 10 days