AI Development Predictions & Odds· 226 markets

B
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

93%

Alibaba

$546k Vol.
$112k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
W
Which company has the best AI model end of September?

99%

Anthropic

$3.6m Vol.
$1.5m Liq.
Ends in 10 days
W
Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

89%

Anthropic

$361k Vol.
$700k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

43%

0

$131k Vol.
$87k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

72%

Anthropic

$1.3m Vol.
$1.0m Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

86%

December 31, 2027

$295k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

56%

Hodge Conjecture

$172k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?

68%

OpenAI

$159k Vol.
$49k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
A
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

11%

Yes

$33k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
B
Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

66%

Alibaba

$102k Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?

Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?

84%

Anthropic

$31k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of November?

50%

Other

$9k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

10%

Yes

$136k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?

Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?

51%

OpenAI

$5k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
#
#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

50%

Other

$8k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

55%

Anthropic

$82k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
T
Trump renames AI by September 30?

Trump renames AI by September 30?

8%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
S
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

64%

Z.ai

$129k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
W
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

40%

Hadamard Matrix Conjecture

$26k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

6%

Yes

$24k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 3 months