538 Approval Rating Predictions & Odds· 103 markets

T
Trump approval rating on September 25?

51%

38.0–38.4

$4k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 days
H
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

51%

37%

$145k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

15%

↑ 47%

$8k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

20%

Up

$670 Vol.
$194 Liq.
Ends in 3 days
R
Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?

25%

September 30

$1k Vol.
$136 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
S
Senate control favorite on November 2?

Senate control favorite on November 2?

84%

Democratic Party

$182 Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
H
House control favorite on November 2?

House control favorite on November 2?

97%

Democratic Party

$2k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which party will win young men in the midterms?

78%

Democrats

$3k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
R
Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?

28%

Yes

$1k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Who will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?

51%

J.D. Vance

$20k Vol.
$160k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 years
D
Dems' best tossup Senate race?

Dems' best tossup Senate race?

39%

Michigan

$5k Vol.
$46k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
I
Illinois Senate Election: Turnout

Illinois Senate Election: Turnout

40%

4.25M-4.5M

$10k Vol.
$37k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
A
Arizona Governor Election: Turnout

Arizona Governor Election: Turnout

34%

2.75M-2.9M

$10k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
H
House favorite on November 2 wins the election?

93%

Yes

$9k Vol.
$30k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
C
CA-28 House Election Margin of Victory

CA-28 House Election Margin of Victory

50%

Person A

$0 Vol.
$680 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
T
Texas Senate Election: Turnout

Texas Senate Election: Turnout

28%

10M-10.4M

$5k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
C
Connecticut Governor Election: Turnout

45%

1.2M-1.3M

$7k Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
W
Will Trump's first endorsement before the primaries be the 2028 GOP nominee?

39%

Yes

$109 Vol.
$80 Liq.
Ends in almost 2 years
W
Will Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election?

23%

Yes

$1k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in over 2 years
O
OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

79%

October 31, 2026

$4k Vol.
$2k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month