538 Approval Rating Predictions & Odds· 103 markets

T
Trump approval rating on September 25?

41%

38.0–38.4

$2k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
H
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

50%

36%

$144k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

13%

↑ 47%

$8k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

33%

Up

$549 Vol.
$134 Liq.
Ends in 4 days
R
Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?

26%

September 15

$1k Vol.
$137 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
S
Senate control favorite on November 2?

Senate control favorite on November 2?

63%

Democratic Party

$0 Vol.
$422 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
H
House control favorite on November 2?

House control favorite on November 2?

97%

Democratic Party

$2k Vol.
$36k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which party will win young men in the midterms?

80%

Democrats

$3k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
R
Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?

26%

Yes

$160 Vol.
$281 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Who will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?

51%

J.D. Vance

$20k Vol.
$174k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 years
D
Dems' best tossup Senate race?

Dems' best tossup Senate race?

37%

Michigan

$5k Vol.
$39k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
I
Illinois Senate Election: Turnout

Illinois Senate Election: Turnout

40%

4.25M-4.5M

$10k Vol.
$37k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
A
Arizona Governor Election: Turnout

Arizona Governor Election: Turnout

34%

2.6M-2.75M

$10k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
H
House favorite on November 2 wins the election?

92%

Yes

$8k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
C
CA-28 House Election Margin of Victory

CA-28 House Election Margin of Victory

50%

Person A

$0 Vol.
$608 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
T
Texas Senate Election: Turnout

Texas Senate Election: Turnout

27%

9.6M-10M

$5k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
C
Connecticut Governor Election: Turnout

51%

1.2M-1.3M

$7k Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
W
Will Trump's first endorsement before the primaries be the 2028 GOP nominee?

39%

Yes

$109 Vol.
$78 Liq.
Ends in almost 2 years
W
Will Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election?

23%

Yes

$1k Vol.
$33k Liq.
1
Ends in over 2 years
O
OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

79%

October 31, 2026

$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month