Third Party 预测与赔率· 228 个市场

W
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

34%

Google

$65k 交易量
$58k 流动性
2
大约 1 个月后结束
N
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

New Zealand Election: 3rd Place

51%

New Zealand First Party

$16k 交易量
$64k 流动性
1
大约 2 个月后结束
R
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

99%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

$260k 交易量
$44k 流动性
2
已结束
A
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...?

Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by...?

49%

October 31

$80 交易量
$60 流动性
大约 1 个月后结束
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

45%

Renan Santos

$1.4m 交易量
$1.3m 流动性
🔥$95k 今日
147
12 天后结束
U
US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

34%

October 31

$2k 交易量
$1k 流动性
大约 1 个月后结束
S
Senate Three-Way Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine

Senate Three-Way Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine

50%

Other

$3k 交易量
$71k 流动性
大约 1 个月后结束
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

14%

December 31, 2026

$4k 交易量
$2k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
T
Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30?

11%

Yes

$8k 交易量
$20k 流动性
8 天后结束
A
Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner

Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner

82%

Democrat

$2k 交易量
$21k 流动性
大约 1 个月后结束
C
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by...?

CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by...?

90%

October 31

$40k 交易量
$51k 流动性
6
大约 1 个月后结束
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

60%

OpenAI

$495 交易量
$2k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
W
Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader?

Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader?

65%

Yes

$391 交易量
$48 流动性
4 个月后结束
K
Kennedy Center demolition announced by...?

Kennedy Center demolition announced by...?

32%

December 31

$641 交易量
$9k 流动性
3 个月后结束
O
Oregon Senate Election Winner

Oregon Senate Election Winner

98%

Jeff Merkley (D)

$7k 交易量
$51k 流动性
1
大约 1 个月后结束
T
Trump announces Canada tariff decrease by...?

Trump announces Canada tariff decrease by...?

64%

December 31

$1k 交易量
$10k 流动性
3 个月后结束
T
Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...?

Trump announces Canada tariff increase by...?

59%

October 31

$3k 交易量
$313 流动性
3 个月后结束
B
Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

50%

Party A

$2k 交易量
$10k 流动性
12 天后结束
I
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

37%

Yes

$13k 交易量
$845 流动性
3 个月后结束
I
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?

2%

Yes

$14k 交易量
$16k 流动性
1
3 个月后结束