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Safe Superintelligence 预测与赔率· 102 个市场

全部PoliticsAwardsScienceMusicElectionsSam AltmanMusic IndustryAIReferendumOpenAIAnthropicCulturePopular VoteSwitzerlandTechGlobal ElectionsGeopoliticsParlaysChatgptMetaRecurringWorldBig TechMathClaudeReferendaDario AmodeiMain Election20 (50) DailyAI ReleasesAI BenchmarksAI RegulationSSIASISafe SuperintelligenceCMIMillennium PrizeAI AchievementsAI SafetyVMAs
S
Switzerland’s September Referendum: What will pass?

Politics·Referenda

Switzerland’s September Referendum: What will pass?

3%

Food initiative

$48k 交易量
$50k 流动性
7 天后结束
V
VMA Best Hip-Hop 2026

Culture·VMAs

VMA Best Hip-Hop 2026

72%

Safe (Cardi B featuring Kehlani)

$102 交易量
$1k 流动性
9 天后结束
S
SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

Tech·AI

SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?

12%

Yes

$4k 交易量
$168 流动性
3 个月后结束
S
SSI public model released by…?

Tech·AI

SSI public model released by…?

19%

October 31

$99k 交易量
$5k 流动性
2
大约 1 个月后结束
A
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Tech·AI

Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

38%

October 31

$4k 交易量
$1k 流动性
1
大约 1 个月后结束
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

Tech·AI

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

78%

October 31

$8k 交易量
$3k 流动性
1
大约 1 个月后结束
W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Tech·AI

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

19%

OpenAI

$9k 交易量
$5k 流动性
1
大约 1 个月后结束
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

Tech·AI

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

42%

0

$112k 交易量
$73k 流动性
3 个月后结束
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

Politics·AI Regulation

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

11%

Yes

$132k 交易量
$29k 流动性
3 个月后结束
W
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Tech·AI

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

54%

Hodge Conjecture

$23k 交易量
$17k 流动性
3 个月后结束
W
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Tech·AI

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

60%

Hodge Conjecture

$165k 交易量
$31k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
A
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

Tech·AI

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

84%

December 31, 2027

$280k 交易量
$22k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
W
Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

Tech·AI

Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?

14%

Meta

$1k 交易量
$3k 流动性
3 个月后结束
F
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

Tech·AI

Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

25%

Yes

$114 交易量
$123 流动性
3 个月后结束
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

Tech·AI

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$72 交易量
$504 流动性
3 个月后结束
O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

Tech·AI

OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

16%

December 31, 2026

$534 交易量
$895 流动性
超过 1 年后结束
O
OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

Tech·AI

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%

Yes

$122 交易量
$729 流动性
3 个月后结束
H
Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Tech·AI

Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

33%

55%+

$60k 交易量
$5k 流动性
3 个月后结束
N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

World·20 (50) daily

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%

Yes

$792k 交易量
$41k 流动性
3 个月后结束
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

Tech·AI

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

56%

OpenAI

$461 交易量
$1k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束

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热门Safe Superintelligence预测

SSI public model released by…?

最新Safe Superintelligence预测

SSI public model released by…?