Writing Predictions & Odds· 115 markets

O
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?

12%

December 31, 2026

$540 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
O
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?

57%

OpenAI

$491 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

99%

Mariah Carey

$175k Vol.
$6k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$336 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
W
What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Mr. Speaker 20+ times

$26k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
What will Keir Starmer say during his resignation announcement?

Thank 5+ times

$2k Vol.
$0 Liq.
6
Ended
W
What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times

$34k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
G
Goodreads Choice Awards: Readers' Favorite Fiction

My Friends (Fredrik Backman)

$67k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended
O
Oscars: Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

$80k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended
O
Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction

$89k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended
#
# of Elon Musk tweets between May 3 and May 10?

Twitter · X

# of Elon Musk tweets between May 3 and May 10?

90-104

$491k Vol.
$0 Liq.
33
Ended
#
# of Elon Musk tweets between May 24 and May 31?

<55

$250k Vol.
$0 Liq.
18
Ended
#
# of Elon Musk tweets between May 10 and May 17?

<60

$487k Vol.
$0 Liq.
36
Ended
W
Which artists will drop music in May?

Kendrick Lamar

$43k Vol.
$0 Liq.
4
Ended
#
# of Elon Musk tweets between May 17 and May 24?

75-84

$275k Vol.
$0 Liq.
19
Ended
E
Euro Finals: How will the game end?

Euro 2024 · Sports

Euro Finals: How will the game end?

Spain wins in 90 min

$52k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended
N
Nic Carter vs. David Hoffman: Who will win?

Draw/No winner

$192k Vol.
$0 Liq.
10
Ended
O
Oscars: Best Original Song

What Was I Made For? (from 'Barbie')

$7k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
@
@friendtech 3+ new posts by midnight?

Yes

$12k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended
#
# of Elon Musk tweets between April 26 and May 3?

Business · Twitter

# of Elon Musk tweets between April 26 and May 3?

60-79

$573k Vol.
$0 Liq.
34
Ended