Social Policy Predictions & Odds· 124 markets

D
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 18 - September 25, 2026?

74%

100-119

$30k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
D
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 22 - September 29, 2026?

27%

120-139

$18k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
D
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 25 - October 2, 2026?

18%

80-99

$10k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
C
Canada passes under-16 social media ban in 2026?

8%

Yes

$22 Vol.
$240 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by October 31?

8%

Yes

$2k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
UK social media ban in effect by…?

UK social media ban in effect by…?

40%

June 30, 2027

$3k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
S
Social Security Insolvent by...?

Social Security Insolvent by...?

17%

December 31, 2028

$929 Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in over 2 years
W
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

14%

Yes

$81k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
N
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won

92%

PL

$313k Vol.
$327k Liq.
10
Ends in 10 days
W
Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?

86%

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)

$157k Vol.
$115k Liq.
6
Ends in 4 months
O
Oscars 2027: Best Makeup and Hairstyling Winner

50%

Movie A

$16k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
R
Russia Election: 2nd Place Party List in Moscow?

99%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

$42k Vol.
$105k Liq.
3
Ended
W
Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?

0%

Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice

$219k Vol.
$44k Liq.
7
Ended
W
What will Trump post this week? (September 21 - September 27)

73%

Rigged

$4k Vol.
$189 Liq.
Ends in 3 days
O
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner

50%

Film D

$241k Vol.
$204k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
N
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held

92%

PL

$57k Vol.
$171k Liq.
3
Ends in 10 days
O
Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner

50%

Movie A

$29k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
O
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

100%

The Odyssey

$34k Vol.
$18k Liq.
4
Ends in 6 months
W
Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

70%

PSD

$32k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in over 1 year
L
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

1%

Amal Movement (Amal)

$677k Vol.
$271k Liq.
14
Ends in about 1 month