Reconciliation Predictions & Odds· 117 markets

W
Will the Senate pass another reconciliation bill by...?

34%

December 31

$5k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Will the House pass another reconciliation bill by...?

22%

December 31

$17k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
R
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

17%

December 31

$2.0m Vol.
$249k Liq.
35
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W
Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

Which AI labs announce a training pause by October 31?

18%

OpenAI

$10k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
S
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?

7%

Yes

$119k Vol.
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2
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W
Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15?
$47k Vol.
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Ended
W
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by...?

June 15

$64k Vol.
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Ends in 6 days
W
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

June 30

$265k Vol.
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21
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W
Which senators vote for the next reconciliation bill?

Mitch McConnell

$60k Vol.
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Ended
H
How many votes will Reconciliation bill get in the House?

217–218

$110k Vol.
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4
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W
When will the reconciliation bill pass?

July 1-6

$274k Vol.
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9
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R
Reconciliation bill passed by...?

July 31

$1.7m Vol.
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275
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W
What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

End Tax on Tips

$321k Vol.
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3
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W
When will Trump sign the Big Beautiful Bill into Law?

July 4

$135k Vol.
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3
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T
Trump signs Big Beautiful Bill into law by...?

July 4

$106k Vol.
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6
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T
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before August?

No

$40k Vol.
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2
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T
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?

No

$1.3m Vol.
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T
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?

No

$477k Vol.
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