Economic Policy Predictions & Odds· 106 markets

I
Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

44%

<2.75%

$608 Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

21%

Yes

$436k Vol.
$3k Liq.
18
Ends in 3 months
U
US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

68%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

$98k Vol.
$6k Liq.
7
Ends in 4 months
W
Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

67%

Yashar

$5k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

89%

Ra'am

$7k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
B
Bank of Israel Decision in October?

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

89%

No Change

$33k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 25 days
F
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

43%

Hike–Hike–Hike

$138k Vol.
$233k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
P
PPI YoY - September 2026

PPI YoY - September 2026

39%

5.9%+

$15k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 20 days
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

15%

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)

$1.1m Vol.
$264k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$292 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
R
Reserve Bank of India decision in October

Reserve Bank of India decision in October

81%

25 bps increase

$24k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
B
Bank of Japan Decision in October?

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

76%

No change

$147k Vol.
$41k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

54%

None before 2027

$77k Vol.
$247k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Core PCE MoM - August 2026

Core PCE MoM - August 2026

69%

0.3%

$20k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
J
Japan recession in 2026?

Japan recession in 2026?

5%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$141 Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
U
UK Recession in 2026?

UK Recession in 2026?

14%

Yes

$15k Vol.
$2k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
C
Core PCE YoY - August 2026

Core PCE YoY - August 2026

30%

3.2%

$54k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
U
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

10%

Yes

$2.2m Vol.
$118k Liq.
🔥$86k today
Ends in 3 months
E
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

47%

0-1.0%

$54k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
U
US recession by end of 2027?

US recession by end of 2027?

35%

Yes

$10k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year