Economic Policy Predictions & Odds· 107 markets

I
Israel Election: Reservists–New Economic Party vote share?

48%

<2.75%

$608 Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

18%

Yes

$436k Vol.
$1k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
U
US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

67%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

$97k Vol.
$6k Liq.
7
Ends in 4 months
W
What will Trump say during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival?

59%

Melania

$35k Vol.
$129k Liq.
2
Ends in about 21 hours
W
Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

89%

Ra'am

$6k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

69%

Yashar

$3k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
B
Bank of Israel Decision in October?

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

78%

No Change

$31k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
P
PPI YoY - September 2026

PPI YoY - September 2026

44%

5.9%+

$14k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 22 days
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

18%

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

$1.0m Vol.
$280k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$296 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
R
Reserve Bank of India decision in October

Reserve Bank of India decision in October

83%

25 bps increase

$23k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 13 days
B
Bank of Japan Decision in October?

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

83%

No change

$136k Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
J
Japan recession in 2026?

Japan recession in 2026?

5%

Yes

$4k Vol.
$142 Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
W
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

63%

None before 2027

$73k Vol.
$243k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Core PCE MoM - August 2026

Core PCE MoM - August 2026

70%

0.3%

$19k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 6 days
U
UK Recession in 2026?

UK Recession in 2026?

12%

Yes

$15k Vol.
$2k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
U
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

8%

Yes

$2.1m Vol.
$48k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
C
Core PCE YoY - August 2026

Core PCE YoY - August 2026

38%

3.4%

$52k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 6 days
E
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

48%

0-1.0%

$54k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
B
Bank of Brazil decision in November?

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

82%

25 bps decrease

$24k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month