August 4 Primaries Predictions & Odds· 108 markets

I
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

91%

September 30

$30.9m Vol.
$180k Liq.
🔥$373k today
292
Ends in 3 months
C
Core PCE YoY - August 2026

Core PCE YoY - August 2026

31%

3.2%

$25k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
C
Core PCE MoM - August 2026

Core PCE MoM - August 2026

72%

0.3%

$15k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
A
Another NATO article 4 by...?

Another NATO article 4 by...?

49%

December 31

$170k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
G
Gemini 4.0 released by...?

Gemini 4.0 released by...?

92%

November 30

$559k Vol.
$24k Liq.
16
Ends in 2 months
W
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

51%

October 12–October 18

$61k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?

31%

October 14

$222k Vol.
$27k Liq.
1
Ends in 10 days
G
GA-04 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

50%

Person A

$3k Vol.
$49k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
O
OR-04 House Election Winner

OR-04 House Election Winner

94%

Val Hoyle (D)

$23k Vol.
$38k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
I
IA-04 House Election Winner

IA-04 House Election Winner

93%

Chris McGowan (R)

$36k Vol.
$36k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
K
KS-04 House Election Winner

KS-04 House Election Winner

93%

Ron Estes (R)

$72k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

98%

Yes

$14k Vol.
$10k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
S
South Carolina Presidential Democratic Primary Winner

50%

Candidate A

$13k Vol.
$103k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
S
SC-04 House Election Winner

SC-04 House Election Winner

93%

William Timmons (R)

$44k Vol.
$38k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
UT-04 House Election Winner

UT-04 House Election Winner

95%

Mike Kennedy (R)

$42k Vol.
$63k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
M
MS-04 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

50%

Person A

$2k Vol.
$44k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
N
New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory

98%

Pappas 30–35%

$6k Vol.
$102k Liq.
Ended
M
MO-04 House Election Winner

MO-04 House Election Winner

93%

Mark Alford (R)

$50k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
M
MA-04 House Election Winner

MA-04 House Election Winner

97%

Jake Auchincloss (D)

$47k Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
M
Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure?

55%

Yes

$1k Vol.
$317 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month