August 4 Primaries Predictions & Odds· 108 markets

I
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

95%

September 30

$31.0m Vol.
$321k Liq.
🔥$207k today
293
Ends in 3 months
C
Core PCE YoY - August 2026

Core PCE YoY - August 2026

37%

3.4%

$27k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
C
Core PCE MoM - August 2026

Core PCE MoM - August 2026

72%

0.3%

$15k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 9 days
A
Another NATO article 4 by...?

Another NATO article 4 by...?

59%

December 31

$170k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
G
Gemini 4.0 released by...?

Gemini 4.0 released by...?

91%

November 30

$560k Vol.
$62k Liq.
16
Ends in 2 months
W
When will Trump announce a new White House Press Secretary?

32%

October 14

$222k Vol.
$24k Liq.
1
Ends in 10 days
W
When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

51%

October 12–October 18

$61k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
G
GA-04 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

50%

Person A

$3k Vol.
$61k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
O
OR-04 House Election Winner

OR-04 House Election Winner

94%

Val Hoyle (D)

$23k Vol.
$58k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
I
IA-04 House Election Winner

IA-04 House Election Winner

94%

Chris McGowan (R)

$36k Vol.
$49k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
K
KS-04 House Election Winner

KS-04 House Election Winner

93%

Ron Estes (R)

$72k Vol.
$51k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

98%

Yes

$14k Vol.
$10k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
S
South Carolina Presidential Democratic Primary Winner

50%

Candidate A

$13k Vol.
$128k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
S
SC-04 House Election Winner

SC-04 House Election Winner

93%

William Timmons (R)

$44k Vol.
$41k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
U
UT-04 House Election Winner

UT-04 House Election Winner

95%

Mike Kennedy (R)

$42k Vol.
$64k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
M
MS-04 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

50%

Person A

$3k Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
N
New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory

98%

Pappas 30–35%

$6k Vol.
$103k Liq.
Ended
M
MO-04 House Election Winner

MO-04 House Election Winner

93%

Mark Alford (R)

$50k Vol.
$38k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
M
MA-04 House Election Winner

MA-04 House Election Winner

97%

Jake Auchincloss (D)

$47k Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
M
Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure?

49%

Yes

$1k Vol.
$303 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month