AI Development Predictions & Odds· 227 markets

B
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

92%

Alibaba

$546k Vol.
$107k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
W
Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

89%

Anthropic

$352k Vol.
$684k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which company has the best AI model end of September?

99%

Anthropic

$3.6m Vol.
$1.5m Liq.
Ends in 10 days
H
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

41%

0

$129k Vol.
$60k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

72%

Anthropic

$1.3m Vol.
$988k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

87%

December 31, 2027

$293k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

53%

Hodge Conjecture

$171k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of November?

50%

Other

$9k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
W
Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of October?

90%

OpenAI

$15k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?

67%

OpenAI

$158k Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
T
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?

Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?

88%

Moonshot

$54k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
B
Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

65%

Alibaba

$102k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?

Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?

84%

Anthropic

$31k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
A
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

11%

Yes

$32k Vol.
$765 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
#
#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

50%

Other

$8k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
S
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?

Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?

50%

Other

$5k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
O
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?

83%

October 31

$11k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
U
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

7%

Yes

$24k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

61%

Anthropic

$81k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
S
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?

52%

Anthropic

$5k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 2 months