538 Approval Rating Predictions & Odds· 103 markets

H
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

83%

37%

$149k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump approval rating on September 25?

47%

37.5–37.9

$5k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
H
How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

9%

↑ 47%

$8k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
T
Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

5%

Up

$900 Vol.
$270 Liq.
Ends in 1 day
R
Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?

25%

September 15

$1k Vol.
$134 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
D
Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

50%

Person A

$3k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
S
Senate control favorite on November 2?

Senate control favorite on November 2?

86%

Democratic Party

$482 Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
H
House control favorite on November 2?

House control favorite on November 2?

97%

Democratic Party

$2k Vol.
$75k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
R
Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?

96%

JD Vance

$4k Vol.
$48k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which party will win young men in the midterms?

75%

Democrats

$3k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
R
Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?

11%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
W
Who will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?

50%

Person A

$20k Vol.
$161k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 years
D
Dems' best tossup Senate race?

Dems' best tossup Senate race?

41%

Michigan

$5k Vol.
$46k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
I
Illinois Senate Election: Turnout

Illinois Senate Election: Turnout

38%

4.25M-4.5M

$10k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
A
Arizona Governor Election: Turnout

Arizona Governor Election: Turnout

35%

2.75M-2.9M

$10k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
C
CA-28 House Election Margin of Victory

CA-28 House Election Margin of Victory

50%

Person A

$0 Vol.
$778 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
H
House favorite on November 2 wins the election?

93%

Yes

$10k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
T
Texas Senate Election: Turnout

Texas Senate Election: Turnout

30%

10M-10.4M

$5k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
C
Connecticut Governor Election: Turnout

47%

1.2M-1.3M

$7k Vol.
$36k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
W
Will Trump's first endorsement before the primaries be the 2028 GOP nominee?

39%

Yes

$109 Vol.
$107 Liq.
Ends in almost 2 years