Resignation Predictions & Odds· 214 markets

W
Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

50%

Other

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W
Will Trump resign before 2027?

Will Trump resign before 2027?

3%

Yes

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W
Will Lauren Boebert resign by...?

Will Lauren Boebert resign by...?

4%

October 31

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W
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

3%

Yes

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N
Netanyahu out by...?

Netanyahu out by...?

51%

Yes

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B
B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner

50%

Person A

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H
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?

7%

Yes

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H
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

19%

Yes

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E
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

5%

Yes

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H
Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory

50%

Another candidate wins

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H
Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?

33%

35-40%

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T
Trump out as President by September 30?

Trump out as President by September 30?

0%

Yes

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N
Natalie Harp out as Special Assistant to the President by December 31?

13%

Yes

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L
Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?

5%

December 31

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H
Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?

29%

35-40%

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M
Max Miller out as US Rep by December 31, 2026?

28%

Yes

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A
Andy Burnham out as UK PM by...?

Andy Burnham out as UK PM by...?

6%

Yes

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H
Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner

88%

Sagal Abdi-Wali

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W
Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

11%

Dong Jun

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T
Trump out as President before 2027?

Trump out as President before 2027?

6%

Yes

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