Nonfarm Payroll Predictions & Odds· 105 markets

W
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

4%

December 31

$70.3m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
1,704
Ends in 3 months
V
Virginia Fonseca and Vinícius Júnior confirm breakup in 2026?

25%

Yes

$3k Vol.
$592 Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
C
Clavicular and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirm relationship in 2026?

2%

Yes

$5k Vol.
$3k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
A
Alix Earle and Lando Norris confirm relationship in 2026?

33%

Yes

$72 Vol.
$46 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
L
Lindsay Hubbard and Matt James confirm relationship in 2026?

46%

Yes

$510 Vol.
$44 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How many jobs added in September?

How many jobs added in September?

38%

50k to 100k

$11k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
J
JOLTS Job Openings: August 2026

JOLTS Job Openings: August 2026

24%

7.4M to 7.5M

$18k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
W
Will Conagra (CAG) beat quarterly earnings?

59%

Yes

$955 Vol.
$333 Liq.
Ends in 5 days
W
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?

56%

Yes

$5k Vol.
$327 Liq.
Ended
W
Will FactSet (FDS) beat quarterly earnings?

69%

Yes

$1k Vol.
$714 Liq.
Ends in 5 days
U
US economic state at the end of 2026?

US economic state at the end of 2026?

67%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

$98k Vol.
$5k Liq.
7
Ends in 4 months
L
Largest private company end of September?

100%

Anthropic

$10k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
N
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

26%

No change

$1k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
3
3rd largest private company end of September?

97%

ByteDance

$12k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
W
Will Lamb Weston (LW) beat quarterly earnings?

71%

Yes

$479 Vol.
$690 Liq.
Ends in 12 days
N
No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by...?

35%

October 15

$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 21 days
S
September Unemployment Rate

September Unemployment Rate

36%

4.1%

$24k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
2
2nd largest private company end of September?

95%

OpenAI

$7k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
W
Will McCormick (MKC) beat quarterly earnings?

55%

Yes

$397 Vol.
$277 Liq.
Ends in 10 days
H
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5%

5.0%

$517k Vol.
$14k Liq.
21
Ends in 6 months