Macro Geopolitics Predictions & Odds· 201 markets

W
Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?

5%

Yes

$109 Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
M
Macron out by...?

Macron out by...?

5%

Yes

$2.2m Vol.
$24k Liq.
92
Ends in 3 months
R
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

51%

J.D. Vance

$707.4m Vol.
$51.9m Liq.
🔥$618k today
441
Ends in about 2 years
P
Presidential Election Winner 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

21%

JD Vance

$708.4m Vol.
$59.8m Liq.
🔥$307k today
1,036
Ends in over 2 years
V
Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

59%

Nicolás Maduro

$97.4m Vol.
$2.3m Liq.
🔥$93k today
450
Ends in 3 months
W
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

99%

Steve Witkoff

$937k Vol.
$297k Liq.
🔥$80k today
Ends in 9 months
N
Next leader out of power before 2027?

Next leader out of power before 2027?

38%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$534k Vol.
$576k Liq.
🔥$65k today
Ends in 3 months
W
Who will Trump speak to in September?

Who will Trump speak to in September?

100%

Xi Jinping

$169k Vol.
$129k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
W
Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?

75%

Mark Carney

$148k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
W
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

13%

Gavin Newsom

$1.1m Vol.
$842k Liq.
21
Ends in 3 months
A
America's Got Talent S21: Winner

America's Got Talent S21: Winner

77%

Nene Royal

$44k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
P
Pará Governor Election Winner

Pará Governor Election Winner

63%

Hana Ghassan

$52k Vol.
$133k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
T
TIME Person of the Year 2026

TIME Person of the Year 2026

28%

Zohran Mamdani

$65k Vol.
$567k Liq.
12
Ends in 9 months
W
WSOP: Player of the Year Winner

WSOP · Poker

WSOP: Player of the Year Winner

50%

A

$48k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
W
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

29%

Dan Scavino

$1.4m Vol.
$86k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
M
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place

Minas Gerais Senate Election: 2nd Place

50%

Candidate B

$54k Vol.
$133k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
W
Who will Trump publicly praise in September?

50%

Javier Milei

$53k Vol.
$632 Liq.
Ends in 8 days
W
Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

93%

Andy Beshear

$86k Vol.
$387k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
W
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

47%

None before 2027

$72k Vol.
$283k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
M
Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place

Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place

50%

Candidate B

$54k Vol.
$138k Liq.
Ends in 9 months