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Economic Forecasting Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

AllSportsPoliticsDeprec USA ElectionBusinessFinanceTrumpFederal ReserveEconomy1Interest RatesGDPAIEmploymentUS PoliticsLayoffsJobsUS ElectionTechGlobal ElectionsFed RatesGolf2026 Winter GamesKamalaTrackToday's OlympicsEconomyBlsAPDeclareElection NightAssocaited PressMacro InflationMacro UnemploymentMacro JobsPayrollNonfarm2025 PredictionsReportCPIEconomic PolicyWorldBig TechMacro IndicatorsDavid Friedberg
W
Will 538 outperform The Economist in forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?

All

Will 538 outperform The Economist in forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?

$81k Vol.
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E
Election called by...?

Politics·deprec USA Election

Election called by...?

Wednesday, Nov 6

$146k Vol.
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2
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J
January Unemployment Rate

Economy·Business

January Unemployment Rate

≤4.0%

$48k Vol.
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45
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G
Ghana Presidential Election

Politics·World Elections

Ghana Presidential Election

John Mahama

$348k Vol.
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43
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G
Golf Winner (W)

2026 Winter Games · Sports

Golf Winner (W)

Other

$14k Vol.
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C
Croatia Presidential Election

Politics·Global Elections

Croatia Presidential Election

Zoran Milanović

$5.1m Vol.
$0 Liq.
139
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N
November Inflation

Economy·Business

November Inflation

2.7%

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21
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H
How many jobs added in January?

Economy·Business

How many jobs added in January?

100-150k

$138k Vol.
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88
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F
Fed rate cut by...?

Finance·Fed Rates

Fed rate cut by...?

September 18

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267
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N
November Unemployment Rate

Economy·Business

November Unemployment Rate

4.2%

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45
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5
5% GDP contraction in Q3 2025?

Economy·GDP

5% GDP contraction in Q3 2025?

No

$357k Vol.
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1
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E
Ecuador Presidential Election

Politics·World Elections

Ecuador Presidential Election

Daniel Noboa (ADN)

$4.9m Vol.
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1,324
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T
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 20​26?

Tech·Business

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 20​26?

Up

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H
How many Jobs added in August?

Politics·Business

How many Jobs added in August?

100-150k

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8
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H
How many jobs added in September?

Politics·employment

How many jobs added in September?

>250k

$221k Vol.
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10
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N
Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?

Economy·GDP

Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?

No

$36k Vol.
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3
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5
5k Winner (W)

Sports · Today's Olympics

5k Winner (W)

Beatrice Chebet (KEN)

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N
Negative GDP growth in 2025?

Economy·GDP

Negative GDP growth in 2025?

No

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3
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J
January Inflation - Annual

Economy·Business

January Inflation - Annual

≥2.9%

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172
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U
US recession in 2025?

Economy·Business

US recession in 2025?

No

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