Chancellor Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

F
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

12%

December 31, 2026

$2.5m Vol.
$210k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
N
Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

54%

No Next Chancellor before 2028

$44k Vol.
$298k Liq.
3
Ends in over 1 year
W
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

18%

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

$1.0m Vol.
$266k Liq.
🔥$62k today
8
Ends in 3 months
M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

14%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$307 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
W
What price will Cap hit in 2026?

What price will Cap hit in 2026?

43%

↓ $0.03

$17k Vol.
$623 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

50%

Other

$111k Vol.
$162k Liq.
1
Ends in over 1 year
W
What will be in the UK Budget?

What will be in the UK Budget?

60%

CGT increase

$2k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
C
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

26%

Yes

$25k Vol.
$2k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

14%

Yes

$83k Vol.
$14k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
W
White House # posts September 25 - October 2, 2026?

76%

200+

$3k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
W
What will Anthropic's frontier output token price hit in 2026?

50%

↑ $75

$0 Vol.
$257 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
White House # posts September 18 - September 25, 2026?

100%

Yes

$10k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
W
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

57%

None before 2027

$74k Vol.
$227k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
White House # posts September 22 - September 29, 2026?

98%

200+

$9k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
C
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Galorys (BO3) - FERJEE In House Group B

Esports · counter strike 2

Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Galorys (BO3) - FERJEE In House Group B

71%

Imperial

$2k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in about 10 hours
L
LoL: Project Conquerors vs Galions Sharks (BO5) - Nexus League Playoffs

Esports · league of legends

LoL: Project Conquerors vs Galions Sharks (BO5) - Nexus League Playoffs

$8k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
L
LAPTOP airdrop to $TRUMP holders by ___?

9%

Yes

$11k Vol.
$1k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 days
T
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

1%

Yes

$30k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

18%

Yes

$21k Vol.
$830 Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in September 2026?

93%

↓ $224

$73k Vol.
$73k Liq.
Ends in 7 days