Texas Redistricting Predictions & Odds· 101 markets

W
Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22?

No

$29k Vol.
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Will the Texas House vote on HB 4 by August 19?

No

$8k Vol.
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W
Will the Texas House pass HB 4 by August 19?

No

$40k Vol.
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T
Texas Senate Election Matchup

Talarico & Paxton

$771k Vol.
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Colin Allred

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# of Republican House seats after Election? (brackets)

220-224

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Texas House Special Election Runoff Margin of Victory

Menefee 15%+

$26k Vol.
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Texas Senate Election Winner

Republican

$1.6m Vol.
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A
Any fleeing Texas House Democrats arrested by Friday?

No

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Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff

1.2–1.5M

$169k Vol.
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3
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Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory (Larger Brackets)

Paxton 25–30%

$146k Vol.
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Texas Presidential Election Winner

Donald Trump

$13.4m Vol.
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Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

Paxton 9%+

$263k Vol.
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2
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Texas Republican Senate Primary Margin of Victory

Cornyn <3%

$0 Vol.
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T
Turnout in Texas Republican Senate Primary First Round

2.0–2.2M

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T
Texas Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory (Smaller Brackets)

Talarico 6.0–6.5%

$7k Vol.
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T
Texas Attorney General Republican Primary Runoff Winner

Mayes Middleton

$17k Vol.
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1
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