Resignation Predictions & Odds· 112 markets

W
Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

50%

Other

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W
Will Trump resign before 2027?

Will Trump resign before 2027?

3%

Yes

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W
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

3%

Yes

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W
Will Lauren Boebert resign by...?

Will Lauren Boebert resign by...?

6%

October 31

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N
Netanyahu out by...?

Netanyahu out by...?

51%

Yes

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H
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?

8%

Yes

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H
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

22%

Yes

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E
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

5%

Yes

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T
Trump out as President by September 30?

Trump out as President by September 30?

0%

Yes

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W
Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

15%

Dong Jun

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T
Trump out as President before 2027?

Trump out as President before 2027?

6%

Yes

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W
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

30%

Dan Scavino

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A
Andy Burnham out as UK PM by...?

Andy Burnham out as UK PM by...?

6%

Yes

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M
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

11%

Yes

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M
Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

6%

Yes

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H
Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory

50%

Another candidate wins

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C
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by...?

4%

Yes

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M
Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...?

2%

Yes

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N
Next leader out of power before 2027?

Next leader out of power before 2027?

36%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

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S
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?

6%

Yes

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