Merz Predictions & Odds· 280 markets

F
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

14%

December 31, 2026

$2.5m Vol.
$180k Liq.
🔥$116k today
Ends in 3 months
N
Next leader out of power before 2027?

Next leader out of power before 2027?

35%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$554k Vol.
$698k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

75%

Vladimir Putin

$1.1m Vol.
$223k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
Who will Trump speak to in September?

Who will Trump speak to in September?

100%

Xi Jinping

$170k Vol.
$118k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
W
Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?

84%

Mark Carney

$149k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
W
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

56%

Friedrich Merz

$546k Vol.
$47k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
W
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?

25%

Zohran Mamdani

$71k Vol.
$581 Liq.
Ended
N
Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

50%

Person A

$35k Vol.
$175k Liq.
3
Ends in over 1 year
W
What will Trump say during events with Chancellor Merz on March 3?

Percent 7+ times

$188k Vol.
$0 Liq.
34
Ended
W
What will Trump say during Merz events on June 5?

Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times

$551k Vol.
$0 Liq.
141
Ended
F
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany in 2025?

No

$217k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
N
Next leader out of power in 2025?

World · Geopolitics

Next leader out of power in 2025?

None in 2025

$2.2m Vol.
$7k Liq.
17
Ended
W
Who will attend King Harald V's funeral?

Mette Frederiksen

$29k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Who will Trump speak to in August?

Mohammed bin Salman

$128k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?

Tucker Carlson

$3.3m Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Who will Trump speak to in July?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$1.4m Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Who will Trump speak to in June?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$1.2m Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30?

Tucker Carlson

$3.0m Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
N
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM

$67.4m Vol.
$0 Liq.
114
Ends in 3 months