Humanitarian Pause Predictions & Odds· 108 markets

W
Will Israel announce 24h+ humanitarian pause by Nov 30?

Yes

$53k Vol.
$0 Liq.
12
Ended
W
Will US resume UNRWA funding before March?

No

$48k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
U
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?

July 31

$5.6m Vol.
$0 Liq.
190
Ended
T
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?

Yes

$1.2m Vol.
$0 Liq.
33
Ended
M
Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

All · trade

Maersk resume shipping in Red Sea by...?

June 30

$11k Vol.
$0 Liq.
27
Ended
H
Humanitarian airdrops over Gaza by August 8?

Yes

$23k Vol.
$0 Liq.
3
Ended
W
Will Maersk resume shipping through Red Sea by Jan 15?

No

$24k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended
Q
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

Yes

$25.5m Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
U
US x Iran ceasefire before August?

No

$241k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended
U
US x Iran ceasefire before July?

No

$348k Vol.
$0 Liq.
95
Ended
U
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

June 30

$62.8m Vol.
$0 Liq.
1,194
I
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?

Yes

$3.6m Vol.
$0 Liq.
11,926
Ended
U
US call for Gaza ceasefire before February?

No

$49k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended
T
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?

No

$119k Vol.
$0 Liq.
5
Ended
I
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May?

No

$1.2m Vol.
$0 Liq.
11,927
Ended
I
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?

Yes

$51.8m Vol.
$0 Liq.
9,480
Ended
I
Israel x Iran ceasefire by Friday?

No

$286k Vol.
$0 Liq.
9,480
Ended