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FOMC Predictions & Odds· 184 markets

AllPoliticsBusinessFinanceTrumpFederal ReserveFedUnited StatesInflationUnemploymentFed RatesEconomyMentionsPowellFOMCTrump PresidencyMacro SingleParlaysJpowJerome PowellRecurringEconomic PolicyMacro IndicatorsGlobal RatesRateFed ChairKevin WarshCPI Release
H
How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?

Fed · jpow

How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?

52%

0

$5k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
H
How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?

Fed · jpow

How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?

27%

3

$10k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
H
How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?

Fed · jpow

How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?

24%

2

$8k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Economy·Fed

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

37%

Hike–Pause–Hike

$95k Vol.
$100k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
A
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Economy·Fed

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

85%

Yes

$83k Vol.
$167k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed Decision in December?

Economy·Fed

Fed Decision in December?

68%

25 bps increase

$1.1m Vol.
$541k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed Decision in October?

Economy·Fed

Fed Decision in October?

53%

25 bps increase

$9.1m Vol.
$1.7m Liq.
🔥$1.0m today
Ends in about 1 month
F
Fed Decision in January?

Economy·Fed

Fed Decision in January?

56%

No change

$98k Vol.
$264k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
H
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Fed · Rate

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

60%

2 (50 bps)

$581k Vol.
$98k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Finance·Business

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

3%

Yes

$231k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Politics·Fed Rates

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

53%

4.25%

$6.9m Vol.
$154k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
F
Fed rate cut by...?

Finance·Jerome Powell

Fed rate cut by...?

49%

July 2027 Meeting

$3.7m Vol.
$101k Liq.
31
Ends in 4 months
W
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

82%

↑ 4.25%

$1.8m Vol.
$145k Liq.
13
Ends in 3 months
P
Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Parlays · Hide From New

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

96%

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%

$161k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
H
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Economy·Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

96%

0 (0 bps)

$53.1m Vol.
$3.7m Liq.
121
Ends in 3 months
W
Will Lisa Cook vote at the next FOMC meeting?

Politics·Fed

Will Lisa Cook vote at the next FOMC meeting?

Yes

$395k Vol.
$0 Liq.
25
Ended
P
Powell says "inflation" 15+ times in FOMC statement?

Politics·powell

Powell says "inflation" 15+ times in FOMC statement?

Yes

$32k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
W
Will Powell wear a purple tie at FOMC?

Politics·Fed Rates

Will Powell wear a purple tie at FOMC?

Yes

$37k Vol.
$0 Liq.
3
Ended
P
Powell says "unemployment" 5+ times in FOMC statement?

Economy·powell

Powell says "unemployment" 5+ times in FOMC statement?

No

$38k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
F
Fed Decision & Dissent Combo in January?

Politics·Fed

Fed Decision & Dissent Combo in January?

No change, Dissents: ≥2

$33k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

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