Chat Bots Predictions & Odds· 105 markets

W
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

13%

#3

$244k Vol.
$25k Liq.
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M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

12%

Yes

$2.6m Vol.
$337 Liq.
135
Ends in 3 months
#
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?

55%

2

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O
OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...?

79%

October 31, 2026

$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
W
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

79%

None in 2026

$126k Vol.
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3
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C
ChatGPT Outage by....?

ChatGPT Outage by....?

88%

Yes

$4k Vol.
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W
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

14%

Yes

$3k Vol.
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4
Ends in 3 months
W
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

35%

↑ 1530

$218k Vol.
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W
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

27%

Google

$158k Vol.
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W
Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

33%

1560

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#
#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?

Shadowrocket

$66k Vol.
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#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?

HotSchedules

$0 Vol.
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#
#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 12?

Shadowrocket

$35k Vol.
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C
ChatGPT global AI chatbot market share on October 31?

80–81%

$42k Vol.
$0 Liq.
O
OpenAI apologizes to Scarlett Johansson by Friday?

Yes

$30k Vol.
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23
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@friendtech 3+ new posts by midnight?

Yes

$12k Vol.
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1
Ended
W
Will Bing suspend its AI chatbot by February 28?

No

$9k Vol.
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Ended
W
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

No

$318k Vol.
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Ended
W
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 before April?

No

$54k Vol.
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4
Ended
W
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025?

No

$268k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended