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Fivethirtyeight 预测与赔率· 100 个市场

W

Politics·Senate

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

77%

Texas

$68k 交易量

$200k 流动性

大约 1 个月后结束

W

Politics·Polling

Which party will win young men in the midterms?

81%

Democrats

$2k 交易量

$20k 流动性

大约 2 个月后结束

D

Politics·Senate

Dems' best tossup Senate race?

46%

Michigan

$4k 交易量

$43k 流动性

大约 1 个月后结束

F

NFL (All) · Sports

Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring D/STs

50%

Broncos D/ST

$0 交易量

$40 流动性

4 个月后结束

W

Crypto·Bitcoin

What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026?

14%

Yes

$22k 交易量

$53 流动性

3 个月后结束

W

Mentions·Trump

What will Trump post this week? (September 21 - September 27)

96%

China

$2k 交易量

$2k 流动性

7 天后结束

R

Politics·Senate

Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...?

41%

October 31

$1k 交易量

$176 流动性

大约 1 个月后结束

W

Finance·Monthly

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

66%

↓ $7,400

$372k 交易量

$107k 流动性

3 个月后结束

L

Politics·Congress

Lauren Boebert admits to sex with staffer before midterms?

7%

Yes

$1k 交易量

$12k 流动性

大约 1 个月后结束

W

Politics·Trump

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

98%

Yes

$14k 交易量

$10k 流动性

2

大约 1 个月后结束

C

Politics·Midterms

CA-05 House Election Margin of Victory

50%

Person A

$60 交易量

$592 流动性

大约 1 个月后结束

W

Mentions·Trump

What will Trump post this week? (September 14 - September 20)

53%

Communist / Communism

$6k 交易量

$135 流动性

大约 10 小时后结束

W

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

16%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$905k 交易量

$282k 流动性

8

3 个月后结束

S

Finance·Equities

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on September 21?

92%

$745

$1k 交易量

$10k 流动性

1 天后结束

G

Politics·Midterms

GA-05 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

50%

Person A

$4k 交易量

$44k 流动性

大约 1 个月后结束

W

Politics·Midterms

WA-05 House Election Margin of Victory

50%

Person A

$0 交易量

$571 流动性

大约 1 个月后结束

W

Crypto·Hit Price

What price will LAB hit in 2026?

6%

↑ $22

$46k 交易量

$13k 流动性

3 个月后结束

W

Finance·Monthly

What will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit in September 2026?

50%

↑ $180

$1k 交易量

$16 流动性

11 天后结束

W

Finance·Monthly

What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in September 2026?

75%

↑ $224

$59k 交易量

$84k 流动性

11 天后结束

W

Politics·US Election

Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?

25%

Yes

$10 交易量

$496 流动性

大约 1 个月后结束

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